Republicans Projected to Pick up Seventy Seats in Prison

WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—In a development that could dramatically change the composition of the federal penitentiary system, Republicans are projected to pick up as many as seventy seats in prison, a leading incarceration expert said on Thursday.

“Prognostication is an inexact science,” Davis Logsdon, who studies conviction rates of corrupt politicians for the University of Minnesota’s Guilt Project, said. “Having said that, if current indictment trends hold up, the Republicans could be flipping at least seventy key prison seats.”

Logsdon broke down criminal cases against Republicans into likely convictions, likely acquittals, and toss-ups, and found that the G.O.P.’s path to the magic number of seventy new prison cells was “very doable.”

According to his projections, Republicans are running for prison “especially well” in districts where the G.O.P. member of Congress was an early supporter of Donald J. Trump.

“In those districts, we’re seeing Republicans who did an incredible job of raising money,” he said. “All of that money is going to translate into a huge number of new freshman prisoners.”

All in all, Logsdon sees the prospect of seventy new Republicans in prison as “nothing short of seismic.”

“Prisons need to get ready,” he said. “A red wave is coming.”

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Poll: Majority of Republicans want Brett Kavanaugh confirmed even if assault accusations are true

A new poll finds that most Republicans want Kavanaugh approved even if he did commit sexual assault

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Matthew Rozsa
September 27, 2018 5:59pm (UTC)
A new poll reveals that, for a majority of Republicans, the question of whether Brett Kavanaugh committed sexual assault is unimportant in terms of whether they feel he should be appointed to the Supreme Court.

Eighty-three percent of Republicans support Kavanaugh’s nomination, according to a recent survey by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll. More noteworthy, 54 percent of Republicans said that they would support confirming Kavanaugh even if it turned out that the sexual assault accusations against him are true. Only 32 percent of Republican voters disagreed with that sentiment.

Notably, a separate poll found that Kavanaugh’s support among Republican women has dropped considerably. While 60 percent of Republican women said that Kavanaugh should be confirmed as of last week, that number has dropped to only 49 percent as of this week, according to the Morning Consult/Politico poll.

Republican feelings do not mirror those of the rest of the American public, however.

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll found that, overall, 43 percent of Americans oppose Kavanaugh serving on the Supreme Court, 38 percent support him doing so and 19 percent remain unsure of how they feel. Seventy-seven percent of Democrats oppose Kavanaugh’s confirmation, as do 41 percent of independents (42 percent of independents say they would support confirming him). That said, 59 percent of Americans said that Kavanaugh should not be confirmed if the sexual assault accusations against him are true, with only 29 percent saying he should be confirmed regardless and 12 percent being unsure either way.

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By contrast, 67 percent of Americans felt that Clarence Thomas should not be confirmed to the Supreme Court if the sexual harassment accusations made against him by Anita Hill proved true. That poll was taken in 1991, and in that year 21 percent thought he should be confirmed even if they were true, with 12 percent once again remaining unsure.

One factor that may prove decisive are the hearings on Thursday. Fifty-eight percent of Americans told the poll that they plan on paying attention to the testimony of both Christine Blasey Ford, Kavanaugh’s accuser, and of Kavanaugh himself. Currently, 42 percent of Americans do not know whether Kavanaugh or Ford is telling the truth. Thirty-two percent say they believe Ford’s story and only 26 percent say they believe Kavanaugh.

“In 1991, when [Hill] came forward to share her experience, the president reopened the FBI background investigation (not a criminal investigation, but a background investigation) to get as many facts as possible for the Senate to consider. This president, to this theme of secrecy, has no interest in the FBI actually talking to people and getting relevant information for the Senate to consider,” Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., told Salon on Wednesday.

Merkley added: “In 1991 the Senate committee proceeded to allow testimony from a number of individuals who had corroborating or relevant additional insights, whether on behalf of Judge Thomas or in support of Anita Hill. So those individuals were heard. In this case, the Republicans are denying the opportunity — I call them the R-11, the eleven Republican men on this committee — are denying the opportunity for corroborating voices or others with relevant information to these experiences that are being shared, to come before the committee. And so they’re turning it into a he said/she said deliberately, and then they’re bringing in the equivalent of a prosecutor to essentially a criminal trial of Dr. Ford, who was brave enough to come forward. This is horrific treatment of a courageous individual and it is completely unacceptable.”

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New report details just how rigged the midterms are in favor of Republicans

This not how it’s supposed to work.
Ian Millhiser

Mar 26, 2018, 2:35 pm
A new report by the Brennan Center for Justice suggests that congressional races are so heavily rigged in favor of Republicans that the United States can barely be described as a democratic republic. The upshot of their analysis is that, to win a bare majority of the seats in the U.S. House, Democrats “would likely have to win the national popular vote by nearly 11 points.”
To put that number in perspective, neither party achieved an 11-point popular vote win in the last several decades. The last time this happened, according to the Brennan Center, was 1982, when a deep recession led the opposition Democrats to a 269 seat majority against President Reagan’s Republicans.

The Brennan Center’s estimate, it should be noted, is unusually pessimistic for Democrats, but consistent with a number of estimates showing that Democrats face an unfair disadvantage at the polls.
After the 2012 election — when Democratic House candidates won the popular vote by almost 1.4 million votes, but Republicans won a solid majority in the House — ThinkProgress estimated that Democrats would need to win the popular vote by about 7.25 points in order to take back the House. (Democratic prospects have improved since 2012, in large part due to a court decision striking down Pennsylvania’s aggressively gerrymandered maps.)
Similarly, data journalist Nate Silver estimates that Democrats could need to win by as much as 10 points to take back the House.

One factor that contributes to the Brennan Center’s pessimism is its analysis of congressional maps in red states. In Alabama, for example, Democratic House candidates could win as much as 47 percent of the statewide popular vote, and still only win one of the state’s seven House seats. In Georgia, Democrats could win 54 percent of the popular vote, yet only win 5 of the state’s 14 seats.

Nor is the House the only place where American democracy is breaking down. Donald Trump lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes, yet he still got to be president. The 49 senators in the Democratic caucus represent nearly 40 million more people than the 51 senators in the Republican caucus.
And this last problem is likely to get much worse. According to Baruch College’s David Birdsell, by 2040 “about 70% of Americans are expected to live in the 15 largest states.” As a result, 70 percent of Americans “will have only 30 senators representing them, while the remaining 30% of Americans will have 70 senators representing them.”
Moreover, if the parties continue to sort into diverse, urban Democrats and homogeneous, more rural Republicans, the GOP won’t just gain a lock on the Senate. They could potentially ensure that no Democrat is ever confirmed to the federal bench again.
In 2016, when Senate Republicans successfully blocked Chief Judge Merrick Garland’s nomination to the Supreme Court, the 46 Democrats in the Senate represented 20 million more people than the 54 Republicans. In 2017, when Neil Gorsuch was confirmed to occupy this seat, the 45 senators who opposed his confirmation represented more than 25 million more people than the senators who supported him.
The United States, in other words, is barreling toward a future where a younger, multicultural, more urbanized majority is ruled by an aging, white, rural minority. That’s a recipe for civil unrest, or even a secession crisis.
At the very least, it casts a very dark cloud of illegitimacy over the entire United States government.

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